iPhone Ultra Could Sell More Than 10 Million Units in Its First Year, IDC Predicts

Apple has yet to officially unveil its first foldable iPhone, but analysts are already making some very confident predictions about how well it could sell.

According to IDC, Apple's foldable iPhone could exceed 10 million shipments during its first year on the market. That is a remarkable forecast for a device expected to cost around $2,500, particularly in a category that Apple has stayed away from until now.

The prediction comes shortly before Apple's expected September 9 event, where the company is widely expected to introduce its first book-style foldable alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup.

IDC expects more than 10 million foldable iPhones

IDC senior research director Nabila Popal reportedly expects Apple to ship more than 10 million units of its foldable iPhone during its first year of availability.

The forecast is significant because Apple's entry could immediately change the balance of power in the foldable smartphone market. Samsung has dominated the category for years, but Apple's enormous global customer base gives it a powerful advantage when entering a new product segment.

The expected price will make the forecast even more interesting. Reports have placed the iPhone Ultra at around $2,500, potentially making it one of Apple's most expensive smartphones.

The foldable market is already changing

IDC's prediction follows an earlier positive outlook from Counterpoint Research.

Counterpoint expects book-style foldables to account for 76% of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026, compared with 52% in 2025. The research firm also expects the broader foldable market to grow by 21% year over year.

Apple's arrival could accelerate that growth even further by bringing foldable phones to consumers who have never seriously considered them.

The iPhone Ultra could therefore be important not just for Apple, but for the entire category.

Samsung could lose more market share

Samsung remains one of the biggest names in foldables, but its market share is expected to decline.

Counterpoint estimates that Samsung held around 40% of the global foldable market in 2025, but could fall to 32% in 2026. Apple, meanwhile, could capture roughly 25% of foldable shipments in 2026 alone.

The comparison needs some context. Counterpoint's 25% forecast covers the 2026 calendar year, while IDC's prediction of more than 10 million units refers to the iPhone's entire first year of availability.

Even so, both forecasts point toward the same broader conclusion: Apple's entry could dramatically reshape the foldable market.

Apple's foldable could become a major growth driver

IDC expects the arrival of Apple's foldable iPhone to prevent the foldable market from experiencing the kind of decline analysts had previously feared.

The research firm expects foldables to grow 12.6% in 2026, followed by an even stronger 18% increase in 2027.

IDC also believes Apple could eventually account for around 40% of all foldable smartphone shipments in 2027.

Those numbers would put Apple in an unusually strong position almost immediately, especially considering that the company is entering the category years after Samsung, Google, Motorola, and others.

Why Apple's entry could change consumer demand

Apple does not necessarily need to create the most technically advanced foldable to make an impact.

Its biggest advantage is the size of its existing ecosystem. Millions of iPhone users are already comfortable with iOS, Apple services, and the company's hardware, which could make an Apple foldable feel like a much more natural upgrade than switching to a competing Android foldable.

The reported book-style design could also appeal to users who want a larger screen without abandoning the iPhone experience.

Preparing your data for a new foldable

For users considering a completely different device design, the upgrade involves more than choosing a screen size and storage configuration. Years of photos, videos, messages, contacts, and other personal content still need to move to the new phone.

Smart Transfer can make that process easier by helping organize and move your personal files when switching devices. A photo gallery manager can also help clean up your library before the move, while a speed test app can check whether your connection is ready for a large transfer.

For smaller jobs, share me file sharing can be useful when you only need to send selected photos, videos, or documents rather than moving everything at once.

Could the iPhone Ultra really reach 10 million shipments?

A 10-million-unit first year would be a major achievement for a brand-new Apple product category, especially with an expected starting price far above conventional iPhones.

The forecast should still be treated as an analyst estimate, not a guaranteed sales figure. Apple's final price, launch markets, supply constraints, and consumer response will all influence the outcome.

Still, the direction of the forecasts is hard to ignore. IDC expects strong first-year shipments, while Counterpoint sees Apple's arrival helping drive substantial growth across the wider foldable market.

Apple's foldable could redefine the category

The iPhone Ultra may arrive years after the first modern foldable phones, but Apple could still become one of the category's most important players almost immediately.

A projected 10 million-plus first year would give the device substantial momentum, while IDC's longer-term forecast suggests Apple could eventually command around 40% of the global foldable market.

Whether those numbers become reality will depend on the final product and its price. For now, though, analysts clearly expect Apple's first foldable iPhone to be much more than a niche experiment.

It could be the device that finally pushes foldable smartphones into the mainstream.